Thoughts on the bus home

After much speculation into the general direction of the world and whether the future will be positive or negative, I have come to the conclusion that the outcome balances on the edge of a knife. There is consensus among academics and policy makers that the nature of conflict has changed. The threats of today are not presented by strong states but by weak states. It is weak and failing states which threaten the peace and stability of the international system. Is it a coincidence that natural resources are found in abundance in these weak states and are in great demand by developed states of the global north? Multinational companies have a considerable stake and economic interest in these states. Oil and diamonds are a valuable resource found in abundance in Africa for example. It is therefore logical that peace and stability is secured in order to free up access of such resources. Of course multinational companies are not motivated by profit alone but a growing need to provide for millions of consumers in the developed world. In this sense, there is a convergence of interests at the moment amongst the most powerful states such as the US, China, Russia, India, UK, and France. They all have a big stake in the presence of peace in order to grow their economies. However, these states continue to pursue their defence agendas behind the scenes and continue to have considerable defence budgets for the acquisition of better military equipment and technology. It is unfortunate that the nature of the international system has changed little since the early 1900s. The question is, when will powerful states decide that significant power can only be acquired through military means? In other words, when will they become bored of peace and economic growth? Also, what preventative mechanisms are there to deal with such a change in attitude? The United Nations has proven to be a miserable and weak organisation incapable of preventing the big powers from having their way and pursuing their self interests. We speak of globalisation, but is it merely a convenient phase where states can continue to pursue their self interests in the presence of international peace?